Three large fronts will determine the outcome of the Greek economy for 2025, particularly in the first half of the new year, as the Finance Ministry's planning shows.

The battle against tax evasion, the absorption of the Recovery Fund's resources, and the new assessments by foreign credit agencies of the country's credit rating are the three key priorities.

Expected in the first half of 2025 are new regulations expanding e-transactions, an application by Greece for the instalment of 5 billion euros by the Recovery Fund contingent to significant reforms, and the assessments by credit rating agencies that will begin in March, with Greece hoping for an upgrade to its credit rating.

In terms of tax evasion, current data shows that the annual revenues of 2.5 billion euros from tax evasion is considered possible in 2025, improving fiscal margins and allowing new tax cuts for the middle class. Final results for 2024 are expected at the end of April, with a current forecast of a primary surplus of the 2024 budget closer to 3% than the original estimate of 2.5%.

In terms of credit ratings, the first in 2025 is expected by the Canadian agency DBRS (March 7), followed by Moody's (March 14), and Standard & Poor's (April 18). The Finance Ministry believes that 2025 will bring new upgrades due to the continuing strong performance of the economy.

As for the Recovery Fund resources, Greece will apply for the 6th instalment by the start of summer in 2025 (5 billion euros), which added to the 7th instalment scheduled for the fall, will provide Greece with 9.8 billion euros. Every instalment is contingent upon specific milestones Greece must achieve, which have been given priority for the new year by the economy officials.